Trends in the demographic development of the Republic of Macedonia

The notion “ethnic Macedonians” appeared after 1944. None of the statistics before this period mentions the existence of such a group and its representatives were considered Bulgarians.

The census shows that while in 1994 compared to 1948 the population of the Republic of Macedonia as a whole increased with 169%, the increase with the “ethnic Macedonians” is 164%. At the same time the increase with the Albanian ethnos is 223%, and compared to 1953 - 271%. This is the reason why the average share of the “ethnic Macedonians” continuously decreased compared to the total number of the population in Macedonia. The results are such because of the various information coming from the marriages rate, birth 

rate, death rate and migratory growth indexes, which are characteristic for the various ethnic groups.

While in 1994 the total gross birth rate factor of the whole population is 17,2‰, the gross group birth rate factor of the Macedonians is 12,9‰, and the gross group birth rate factor of the Albanians is 27,2‰. While in 1994 to 1000 Macedonians of the age 15 to 49 25,8 Macedonian children were born, to 1000 Albanians of the age 15 to 49 during the same period 54,9 Albanian children were born. Since 1994 the share of the Macedonians in the reproduction of the population is under 50%.

The dynamic movement of the ethno-demographic processes in Macedonia was strongly reflected also by the status of the marriages. There is no doubt that the higher marriage rate observed with the Albanians (11,3‰), the Turks (‰), the Roma (12,7‰) and the others (here the self-determined as Muslims prevail), is a precondition for the higher birth rate observed there.  It is impressing that the marriage rate of the Macedonians (5,8‰) is lower than the average observed in the country (7,0‰)

Similar trends are observed also with the death rates. While the total gross death rate factor of the whole population during 2000 was 8,4‰, the gross group death rate factor for the Macedonians was 9,9‰, and the gross group death rate factor for the Albanians was 5,9‰.

Extremely high is also the Albanian migratory growth.

The demographic indexes show that the Macedonian population is objectively decreasing. This may cause a crisis of the Macedonian national identity and a turn towards the old ethnic self-determinations, including re-Bulgarization. The political weight of the Albanian population is growing in accordance to the increase of the Albanian population. The processes of removal of the Bulgarian-Albanian ethnographic boundary to the East, observed in the period XV — XIX centuries continue in present days.